Yet more power price pain coming for some ?

[Lester]

..

Just a sharing of thoughts . . .

Just how high do you think power bills can go ?

Well, obviously with inflation a lot higher over time, but I'm talking about the increases just in the past couple of years, and now likely again in a few months for some consumers in the NEM system, all way more than CPI / wage growth / average investment growth.

All through the news now, some of you will have seen this already in news reports.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-13/power-bills-rise-as-aer-lifts-benchmark-price/105040808 

I honestly thought here in SA would be sitting on the peak rate just under 50c / kwh for some time (the highest in the country by far), after increases of around 50% to power bills over the past 2 years.

While not yet final approved, what's the chances these increases will get through ?

Pretty high I'd say.

Not AGL's or any other retailers fault of course, but that of the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) advising they are recommending sweeping increases in numerous states to the default market offer (DMO).

(Hmmm, so what's happened to all this 'green cheapest energy' we keep hearing about ?)

If the SA proposed 5.1% increase gets through, it will push peak rate to just under 52c / kwh inc gst come July 1st.

My 1st quarter 2023 rate was 0.3244c inc gst, so from then to the new proposed change will see peak time of use rates increased 51.6% in 2 years.

Supply charge then 0.76c, now 1.023c, that's 35% more as well.

What makes you laugh (if it was funny) is that just July 1 2024, we got a wholesale price reduction !!

Pre reduction was 50.171, dropped a whole 0.748c (down 1.4%) to 49.423c.

We'd already started planning the overseas trip with that windfall, but then . . .

Getting hit from all sides.

Having already gone down the solar road after those two year ago massive rises, Nov 2024 saw the solar FIT dropped from 6c to 4c after our first year on that, so that earlier July reduction 0.748c / kwh bonanza is taken by FIT reduction within minutes.

And we have the solar soak 'sun tax' of 1.2c / kwh reduction from FIT, starts here in SA this July 1st as well !

Excess solar between 1000 and 1500 with see FIT (4c) reduced 1.2c = 2.8c feed in during the most productive daylight hours.

Also coming in for QLD / VIC at the same time, not sure about Tassie . . . it is already in NSW from last July 1st.

Worse for Vic solar consumers, their FITs are mooted for 2c soon (already started ?), so they will get 0.8c feed in.

Bear in mind, FITs are almost irrelevant now, solar alone is destined for oblivion, unless you can self consume, this is where the real savings are.

For working households, a double investment of solar and a battery is needed now, so upwards of $15k to $20k for a decent setup.

I have no idea how households under a lot more pressure from all the cost of living increases we have faced, continue to face, are coping.

What would YOU like to see to relieve pressure on your energy costs ?

Do you even have any real options to cope with ever rising bills and changing of the 'goal posts' by regulators ?

[NeilC]

@Lester

You are forgetting the obvious, the retailers are making a fortune from your feed-in.

They are paying you 4cents and selling it to another customer down the road from you at full cost.

This is another reason why the push for homes to have a smart meters is continuing...

[Lester]

..

Nice to hear from you Neil.

"retailers are making a fortune from your feed-in"

Indeed, that should be obvious to anyone with solar 😞

Thanks for pointing it out for those considering solar, but haven't yet looked that far ahead.

They should also look at plans retailers might put them on (or have available) with smart meters, TOU can be a huge trap for working families.

Not happy about that, all you can do to avoid this is get a battery, or an EV to charge during the day, and soak up as much of your own production you can with normal usage appliances in the home.

Crank up that air cond during the day to cool the house for nothing, turn it off from 1800 - 0000 (0000 for us on EV rate, for others it is probably the normal 0100).

That self consumption is the only way grid connected, stand alone solar works now.

A difficult balance for seasons, you don't want to be charging or using power in the home over and above production, paying daytime rate . . . probably if close to the edge of this, you'd need good battery management, or Catch Power so you can avoid using too much, spread usage out to stay within production.

Looked at another battery option a few nights ago at a presentation.

Not overly impressed with the way they presented figures, kind of like a lot of solar companies when quoting people.

Best scenario, not allowing for seasonal, but I know what I need now when we take that leap.

It is getting much harder with stand alone solar to maintain benefits, even for those that can self consume production a fair amount.

FYI, my data is a complete shemozzle again now (since 7/2), still trying to get it sorted.

AGL reps seem less responsive now since David P left.

[Lester]

Wed 11th June, an email this morning from AGL.

More price increases, and . . .

WHAT HAPPENED TO NEWS REPORTS OF INCREASES IN SA TO THE TUNE OF AROUND 3.2% ???

A typical news report from late May . . .

South Australia

• Residential customers without controlled load will see price increases of 3.2%;
• Customers with controlled load will see price increases of 2.3%.

NSW expecting increases around 8.5% to 9.5%, QLD up to 3.7%.

Many news outlets had stories of this around that time, and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) released the Default Market Offer (DMO) for 2025-26 same time.

https://www.energy.gov.au/news/australian-energy-regulator-releases-new-default-electricity-prices 

But my rates increases are much higher than what was advised.

New peak rate up 14.53% to 56.606c, and this is for 2 blocks per day for 13 hours of each day !!

Shoulder down 10.1% to 26.015c (but this is irrelevant normally with our solar)

Off peak up 8.5% to 36.795c

To top it off, daily supply charge is going up from $1.0256 to $1.16171, an additional 13.6% increase !!

Believe it or not, feed in for excess solar is dropping from 4c to 2c as well, giving it away !!

Not a chance our feed in will cover supply charge, even in summer, or contribute meaningfully vs offsetting peak charges being some 28 times higher.

Is it time to curtail feed in ?

I know this is spiteful, but can you blame solar owners ?

After all, it seems we are getting pushed further and further towards solar not being viable in any way but self consumption, and we are just giving power to retailers to sell at massive markups.

So, anyone from AGL able to respond to this ?

So much for SA's great renewables efforts, leading the way in Australia, but leading the way with high pricing too.

This is very disappointing.

I especially feel for people without the financial means, or renters etc, not able to access solar (and batteries).

People considering solar will certainly lower bills somewhat for most homes, but it's now diminishing greatly in benefits for the outlay, the return on investment, and it will only get worse . . . they should be warned you are only going to get value from solar with a battery too, and then down the line you will probably see that eroded somehow too by new rules / goal post shifts in pricing structures.

After 42 years residential power with AGL, I will have to reassess my position with  https://www.energymadeeasy.gov.au/ and see if anyone has kept pricing to a reasonable level.

I'm not expecting much though, in the past comparing has yielded no better results, with retailers either charging more for usage and less supply charge, or vice versa.

My data downloads are still not formatted correctly with date / time showing order rationally, despite some AGL folk trying to sort it out since early Feb.

[Basil_AGL]

Hey Lester,

Thank you for taking the time to share such a detailed and thoughtful message.

I hear your concerns loud and clear — not only about the increases themselves, but also the broader impact for solar customers like yourself, and fairness, particularly for those without access to solar or battery options. 

I’d like to offer the opportunity to speak directly with one of our Senior Proposition Managers, who is closely involved in how these plans are shaped and can provide greater context and answer any questions you may have. 

If you’re open to it, I can arrange a time that works for you to catch up with him.

I also understand your ongoing frustration regarding the data formatting issue — I’m sorry to hear it’s still unresolved. I’ll ensure this is followed up again.

Thanks again for your honesty and for sticking with us for over 40 years!

[NeilC]

@Basil_AGL @Lester ,

Basil and Lester,

As a long time supporter of AGL I am disgusted that AGL is continuing to rip off the people that invested in Solar.

Can you please explain to members of this forum the reason that your company will pay me 2c for supplying power back into the grid and then sell it back to other AGL customers at over 50c.

I am an aged pensioner and cannot afford to invest $10,000 in a battery as much as I would like too.

I am madly searching for a new Retailer but am having trouble because of the change occurring on the 1st July 2025 as new rates will come into effect.

Have new rates starting on the 24th June but also have an email stating my new rates from the 1st July.

Really don't think that I can support your neighboured when all you want to do is rip off all and sundry.

[Lester]

Thanks for the reply and empathy Basil.

It is frustrating, as @NeilC commented, people get set up with solar, some take on batteries etc, rules change and the benefit is diminished, over and over.

I don't want to harp on it, but when we got the solar Nov 2023, the difference between solar FIT and peak tariff on TOU was around 8 times, that was bad enough, but the FIT helped keep bills down somewhat.

From July 1 the difference will be 28 times . . .

I can certainly understand some of the reasoning for not wanting FITs as much during solar soak (but not so much in winter), especially in SA with rooftop solar being so widespread, but now I'm seeing more frustration like Neil has, and certainly experiencing that concern myself with the massive discrepancy.

Yes, solar alone has moved into being all about self consumption in the past 2 years or so . . . without that ability, a battery is a must have now, especially in SA.

I'm open for someone to call and have a discussion about this, hopefully provide some useful feedback etc.

I'd like to see FITs higher in Winter, perhaps a couple of months either side of winter . . . while lower FITs or curtailment might be needed more in the peak of Summers.

You have all my contact info, so feel free to tee that up with an email if you like.

I'm also keen to find out if the 2c drop in FIT is somewhat tied to the new solar soak 1c penalty starting July 1 here.

AGL might be covering that in the 2c drop, but still, that is still a huge extra take with feed in outside solar soak hours, and over the threshold set.

Last data check Wed night the 11th, data was still in the wrong presentation.

Just back from 5 days away in Melbourne, tried downloading data tonight and for the first time it comes up with an error . . . tried downloading a couple of times, won't go through downloading the zip.

This could be a general problems at the moment, think I saw a post about download data problem before I headed away ?