Apologies for the delay. We had to escalate this question internally.
You’re right, AGL does do its own internal forecasting on the state of the gas market in Eastern Australia as well as rely on other independent external reports.
- A report by EnergyQuest, released 21st December 2018, identified a major gas shortfall from 2022 in the southern states including Victoria. It also emphasised the need to progress LNG projects to avoid the crisis.
- The Australian Domestic Gas Outlook Conference, the CEO of Orica, Alberto Calderon called on the government to use a gas export cap to address gas shortages and high price.
- We also presented at the Australian Domestic Gas Outlook Conference last year and shared our views of the market as well, and we have been concerned for some time there will not be enough gas for Victorians from 2021+ to meet their winter peak demand.
- Most recently, you can find our view on the market and the potential for a shortfall in the linked presentation at the Taylor Collison East Coast Gas Day. This can be found on our website here.
As a company with 1.4 million gas customers, we can’t just rely on the AEMO for evidence of a gas supply crisis.